30 July 2026 Screener
Universe: 715 US large-caps (cached list, 3 days old, reused per the 7-day rule) + NOK/ERIC (Non-US watchlist) − 9 Exclude-list names (none of which were present in the cache) = 717 candidates screened live.
Macro backdrop (live scan): Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% for a 5th straight meeting (divided vote, 3 dissents favoring a hike); core PCE 3.4% (May); Treasury yields selling off post-decision on Fed-credibility doubts around new Chair Warsh; Strait of Hormuz shipping-chokepoint risk and China–US friction (humanoid-robot import ban, threatened retaliation) are the live geopolitical threads; AI-infrastructure demand (Korean chip exports, Zhongji Innolight’s HK listing) remains a bright spot inside an otherwise risk-off tape for rate-sensitive names.
Funnel: 717 → 131 quantitative survivors (82 at ≥40% off high, 49 more from the 20-40% band that cleared a 5-year valuation-cheapness check on top) → full six-part diligence on all 131 → single consolidated scoring pass → 12 of 129 distinct names (9.3%) scored 7/10+, comfortably under the 20-25% calibration-flag threshold (no further tightening needed, though one mid-pass tightening was applied before finalizing — see below).
FIS — Fidelity National Information Services
$46.81 (FMP, 2026-07-30) · 42.96% off 52wk high ($82.07) · mkt cap $24.20B
Financial analysis: real FCF, sub-7x forward P/E per an independent analyst read; balance sheet still shows a weak Altman-Z, though net debt/EBITDA is improving as the Worldpay/TIS simplification plays out.
Valuation corroboration (2 of 3): DCF and the sub-7x forward P/E both point the same direction.
News/political: nothing newly adverse this run beyond the ongoing divestiture-optics narrative already known.
Insider/congressional: genuine, reconfirmed CEO Ferris open-market buy plus director Goldstein’s multi-month dollar-cost-averaging purchases into weakness — this is real conviction buying, not RSU/10b5-1 activity.
Catalyst: Worldpay/TIS portfolio-simplification deleveraging, confirmed and already in motion.
Biggest fact against the thesis / value-trap read: the weak Altman-Z is a genuine, not-yet-resolved balance-sheet fragility — the market may be pricing real solvency risk, not just a divestiture optic. Read: temporarily wrong on the operating business, but the balance-sheet caution is legitimate and worth tracking, not dismissible.
Score: core 6.5 → no legal/political deduction → +1.0 boost (capped, genuine insider buying) → 7.5/10
Label: High-conviction, actionable (5th appearance, fresh evidence)
Trigger framing: watch for the next quarterly print to show Altman-Z stabilizing alongside continued deleveraging — that would resolve the one open balance-sheet question.
NOW — ServiceNow
$115.76 (FMP, 2026-07-30) · 41.7% off 52wk high ($198.61) · mkt cap $119.7B
Financial analysis: net cash, revenue/cRPO growth intact.
Valuation corroboration: single-sourced this run (analyst target only, modest upside) — per rubric this alone would cap the core score at 6.5, which is where it landed.
News/political: confirmed AI-bookings acceleration (+40% sequential) directly rebuts the “AI kills SaaS” bear narrative circulating this quarter.
Insider/congressional: genuine CEO McDermott open-market buys, plus a large ($1–5M) Rep. Wied congressional purchase.
Catalyst: the AI-bookings inflection above — already reported, not hoped-for.
Biggest fact against the thesis / value-trap read: valuation is still rich on an absolute FCF basis — the discount here is modest relative to peers, not a deep dislocation. This is “good business, imperfect discount,” not a screaming value case.
Score: core 6.5 → no deduction → +1.0 boost (capped, genuine buying cluster) → 7.5/10
Label: High-conviction, actionable (5th appearance, fresh evidence)
Trigger framing: the case rests more on quality-plus-buying-conviction than on valuation; a further pullback toward the low-$100s would improve the risk/reward materially.
ADSK — Autodesk
$245.25 (FMP, 2026-07-30) · 25.47% off 52wk high ($329.09) · mkt cap $51.78B
Financial analysis: Altman-Z 3.97 (safe), Piotroski 8/9, rising FCF yield, ROE 37%, near-zero net debt.
Valuation corroboration: single-sourced this run (DCF data was internally inconsistent across snapshots and excluded) — capped at 6.5 core per rubric.
News/political: nothing adverse; confirmed beat-and-raise plus a signed/financed MaintainX acquisition.
Insider/congressional: the single tightest insider-conviction cluster in this run’s entire batch — CEO, CFO, and 2 directors all bought within one week, all discretionary.
Catalyst: confirmed beat-and-raise + the completed/financed MaintainX deal.
Biggest fact against the thesis / value-trap read: the AI-disruption bear case for enterprise design software is real and unresolved industry-wide — Autodesk isn’t immune just because insiders are buying. Read: temporarily wrong, with the tightest insider-conviction signal in the batch as the tiebreaker.
Score: core 6.5 → no deduction → +1.0 boost (capped) → 7.4/10
Label: High-conviction, actionable (4th appearance, fresh evidence)
Trigger framing: next print showing continued billings acceleration would resolve the single-sourced-valuation gap.
BSX — Boston Scientific
$46.04 (FMP, 2026-07-30) · 57.95% off 52wk high ($109.50) · mkt cap $68.43B
Financial analysis: ROE and ROIC both rising, Altman-Z 3.36 (safe), deleveraging in progress.
Valuation corroboration (2 of 3): DCF and analyst consensus both strongly corroborate a large discount (~60-100%+ implied upside).
News/political: WATCHMAN/EP segment softness is a real, named competitive issue — not a legal/regulatory matter, so only a minor deduction.
Insider/congressional: 3 directors bought in a tight 2-day window on the open market.
Catalyst: confirmed Q2 beat.
Biggest fact against the thesis / value-trap read: WATCHMAN/EP weakness is real but confined to part of the portfolio, not company-wide. Read: temporarily wrong.
Score: core 7.0 (DCF + analyst both corroborate) → minor deduction (competitive, not legal) → +0.3 boost → 7.3/10
Label: High-conviction, actionable (3rd appearance, fresh evidence)
Trigger framing: WATCHMAN segment stabilization in the next 1-2 quarters would remove the one lingering doubt.
TW — Tradeweb Markets
$108.18 (FMP, 2026-07-30) · 26.65% off 52wk high ($147.49) · mkt cap $23.05B
Financial analysis: Altman-Z 14.3 (very safe), Piotroski 7/9, rising ROIC/ROE and FCF yield.
Valuation corroboration (2 of 3): DCF (~31%) and analyst target (~17%) align.
News/political: nothing notable this run.
Insider/congressional: an insider-sales cluster persists (multiple officers, Mar–Jun 2026) with no offsetting open-market buying found in any run to date — genuinely a caution, not a positive.
Catalyst: confirmed record ADV/trading-volume growth, already reported.
Biggest fact against the thesis / value-trap read: the unbroken insider-selling pattern across every run is the single largest wart on an otherwise clean compounder story. Read: temporarily wrong on price, but the insider pattern deserves ongoing scrutiny.
Score: core 6.8 → no deduction → +0.2 boost (routine only) → 7.0/10
Label: High-conviction, actionable (3rd appearance, fresh evidence)
Trigger framing: a genuine open-market insider buy would meaningfully strengthen this case; absent that, this is a clean-compounder-at-a-discount thesis on fundamentals alone.
AMKR — Amkor Technology
$42.73 (FMP, 2026-07-30) · 55.81% off 52wk high ($96.68) · mkt cap $10.59B
Financial analysis: strong balance sheet, net debt/EBITDA 0.16x.
Valuation corroboration: single-sourced (analyst only; DCF output was unreliable) — capped at 6.0 core, rescued by the boost below.
News/political: stock fell ~23% same week on guidance (HBM-shortage-driven) despite a beat — a genuine, unresolved overreaction question.
Insider/congressional: repeated genuine congressional purchases (Sen. Mullin, across 3 separate dates) — a real, one-directional signal, not routine.
Catalyst: confirmed Nvidia $1.5B deal + confirmed TSMC 10-year agreement + the Q2 beat itself.
Biggest fact against the thesis / value-trap read: the guidance-driven post-earnings collapse despite the beat is the central open question — is this sentiment overreaction or a real demand-cliff signal? Current evidence (repeated congressional buying, two large confirmed contracts) leans toward temporary, but this is not yet fully proven.
Score: core 6.0 → no deduction → +1.0 boost (capped, repeated genuine congressional buying) → 7.0/10
Label: High-conviction, actionable (2nd appearance, fresh evidence — promoted from Watchlist this run)
Trigger framing: the next quarter’s HBM-related guidance commentary is the key confirm/deny event.
XYL — Xylem
$122.13 (FMP, 2026-07-30) · 20.83% off 52wk high ($154.27) · mkt cap $28.52B (20-40% band, survived the 5yr valuation-cheapness check)
Financial analysis: Altman-Z 4.16 (safe), Piotroski 7/9, recovering ROIC.
Valuation corroboration (2 of 3): DCF (~20%) and analyst target (~24%) align.
News/political: nothing notable this run.
Insider/congressional: one genuine director open-market buy.
Catalyst: confirmed beat-and-raise, +42% orders, a signed WaterFleet deal — a clean, already-realized inflection.
Biggest fact against the thesis / value-trap read: FCF yield remains modest (<3%) — this is a real, if minor, constraint on how “cheap” the name actually is. Read: temporarily wrong, modest margin of safety.
Score: core 7.0 → no deduction → +0.2 boost → 7.2/10
Label: High-conviction, actionable (2nd appearance, fresh evidence — promoted from Watchlist this run)
Trigger framing: continued order growth in the next print would reinforce; this is already one of the cleaner setups in the batch.
TYL — Tyler Technologies
$333.50 (FMP, 2026-07-30) · 46.33% off 52wk high ($621.34) · mkt cap $14.06B
Financial analysis: Altman-Z 7.97, Piotroski 7/9, gov-tech oligopoly moat.
Valuation corroboration (2 of 3): DCF (~27%) and analyst target (~31%) align.
News/political: nothing notable this run.
Insider/congressional: a minor, systematic COO buy program — not a strong signal either way.
Catalyst: confirmed Q2 beat resolving a pre-earnings margin-anxiety selloff — this is the first confirmed, dated catalyst found for this ticker in four consecutive runs. The valuation discount has been on file since 2026-07-24; only today did a real catalyst show up to pair with it.
Biggest fact against the thesis / value-trap read: the multi-run absence of a catalyst until today means this thesis was previously “cheap but nothing’s happening” — today’s print is the first evidence the “nothing’s happening” phase is over. Read: was genuinely unproven, now cautiously temporarily-wrong.
Score: core 6.8 → no deduction → +0.2 boost → 7.0/10
Label: High-conviction, actionable (2nd appearance, fresh evidence — promoted from Watchlist this run)
Trigger framing: one more confirming quarter would meaningfully de-risk what has so far been a single data point.
Demoted this run (were High-conviction, now Watchlist — 2 consecutive stale runs)
ROP (Roper Technologies) — fresh diligence this run scored 6.3/10 (DCF-vs-consensus conflict resolved conservatively per rubric); stale-run counter reached 2.
BR (Broadridge) — fresh diligence this run scored 6.3/10 (organic-growth softness); stale-run counter reached 2.
New 1st-appearance 7/10+ names — logged only, not presented (presentation gate)
SOFI 7.2 — record beat-and-raise the market ignored; DCF/analyst align modestly; genuine CEO Noto buying.
CSL (Carlisle) 7.0 — 3-way valuation corroboration (DCF+analyst+GuruFocus), confirmed beat-and-raise, repeated congressional buying.
NKE (Nike) 7.0 — confirmed China channel restructuring already announced, rare CEO+2 directors+Tim Cook buying cluster; FCF decline is real and not yet fully proven reversed.
These need a second appearance with fresh evidence before they’d be presentable.
Sub-7/10 names worth a glance (fell short, briefly)
MU, MSFT, KLAC, LRCX, NEM, NOC, GNRC, TEAM, UBER, CDE, VRSK, CSGP (6.3–6.8) — good businesses, but valuation discount rested on a single source or an outright DCF-vs-consensus conflict; the rubric’s “be conservative on conflict” rule kept all of these under 7.
INTU, RBLX, PODD, EL, DOW, GDDY, ERIC, IONQ, FIG, CRWV, STRK, ECHO/SATS — hard-disqualified or scored very low (2.0–3.0) on active securities litigation, distress-zone balance sheets, negative FCF with no credible funded path, or genuine value-trap patterns. Full reasoning is in the underlying diligence files.